Capital Flows
Global Macro Livestream
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Capital Flows Daily Livestream
Streaming M-F 11:30 MST (1.5 hours before cash equity close)
Built for
Active risk takers who put real capital to work and want their book aligned with the biggest drivers in global markets.
Traders and allocators hunting asymmetric, home-run trades instead of nickel-and-diming basis points.
People who want their actions in sync with the macro regime so months of disciplined decisions don't get erased in a single week.
Especially if you...
Need to navigate recession risk, inflation shocks, macro liquidity, and credit cycle turns without guessing the narrative of the day.
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Make capital allocation decisions for yourself or others as a PM, CIO, prop trader, wealth manager, family office, or serious individual trader.
If you're responsible for risk, not just opinions, this is built for you.
Macro Livestream Format
Map the macro regime so you're on the right side of it, and isolate the few large, asymmetric bets that can become home-run trades.
Free Macro Playbook
Macro Flows From First Principles
What Actually Drives Markets
How The Structural Regime Is Developing
Filtering False Narratives And Institutional Bias
Reading The Daily Data In Regime Context
Global Capital Flows
Macro Regime
Positioning & Systematic Flows
Macro Liquidity
Credit Cycle
Cross-Border Flows
Growth · Inflation · Liquidity
Rates & FX
Equities
Market Microstructure
Option Flow
Momentum & Mean Reversion
A Complete Read On The Macro Backdrop
Clarity on the Macro Regime
AND
Conviction in Asymmetric Bets
Session Output
During the Livestream
Live Q&A
After the Livestream(20-Minute Read)
Proprietary Macro Flows & Positioning Report
Recording of the Private Session
Synthesized Transcript of the Private Session
THE SESSION AHEAD
What you'll walk away with
By the end of this session, you will be able to trade the US-China AI race as a supply chain, not a story.
Locate the binding chokepoint — the layer of the chain where pricing power lives right now, and where it migrates next.
Price every layer against the value it actually captures — and spot the names where price and reality have come apart.
Turn this week into live tests — the inflation print Tuesday, China's growth number Wednesday, the foundry giant Thursday: each one either validates the regime or breaks it.
THE AI RACE · 01
A race with no second prize
Why the environment AI created forces the US to win — and prices every US asset off first place
AI is winner-take-all. There is no prize for second place — and the entire US book is positioned for first.
Scale begets scale: the best model attracts the most usage, which funds the most compute, which trains the next best model. Compounding loops do not pay silver medals.
This week the race got explicit: Washington halved the approved Asia buyer list for advanced AI chips, closing the last routing loopholes into China.
Beijing answered in kind: a 5-nanometer-class chip in volume without Western lithography, and a state-sponsored IPO wave for its robotics champions.
On the table: US growth, index leadership, the biggest sector of the bond market and the dollar's bid — all sitting on the same trade. So what does the race look like on a price screen?
THE AI RACE · 01
US LEAD CHINA LEAD
SUMMIT · 100% OF THE PRIZE EVERY OTHER ALTITUDE · 0% ALTITUDE US CN
3THE SUMMIT — the whole prize
US ASCENT — compute leadAHEAD
CHINA ASCENT — cost leadCHASING
2GAP ·
SCREE — what second place gets
1TWO ROUTES UP ONE FACE
The bet at base campAI investment ≈ 74% of Q1 US growth
Riding the US ropeTop 10 stocks = 41% of the S&P 500
The chaser is closeChinese models ≈ 46% of US enterprise AI usage
Summit pays
Winner-take-all mechanics · US × China
One Summit, No Second Prize
THE AI RACE · 01
There is no prize for second place — and every asset in the US book is betting on first.
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast Capital Flows Research · Morning Run
THE AI RACE · 01
One theme, five different outcomes
Read it: over the last year the 'AI trade' produced five different outcomes — the chokepoint compounded (+83%), memory went vertical then cracked (+650%), the capex payers de-rated, and second place wasn't paid at all. One theme, five trades.
THE AI RACE · 02
One trade is carrying the whole book
Concentration stopped being a style factor — it became the market structure
The AI race is no longer a sector view. It is the load-bearing column of US growth, equities, credit and the dollar.
Equities: the top ten names are a record 41% of the S&P 500 — fourteen points above the 2000 peak — and AI beneficiaries drive roughly half of this year's index earnings growth.
Growth: AI investment drove about three-quarters of first-quarter GDP growth. A capex guidance cut is now a macro event, not a stock event.
Credit: AI-linked debt of roughly $1.2 trillion just became the largest sector of the investment-grade bond index — passing the banks.
Flows: Gulf sovereign funds deployed a record $53.9bn in six months, half into US private AI. The 'US exceptionalism' bid has quietly become AI-specific.
THE AI RACE · 02
1US GROWTH
~74% of Q1 growth
2EQUITY MARKET
top 10 = 41% of the index
3CREDIT MARKET
$1.2T, now the largest bond sector
4THE DOLLAR
the sovereign AI bid
THE AI TRADEload-bearing column
Earnings engine
AI names ≈ half of this year's S&P earnings growth
Now loading
One trade now carries US growth, equities, credit and the dollar — size it like it.
One position · four markets on top of it
The Trade Holding Up the Book
THE AI RACE · 02
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast Capital Flows Research
THE AI RACE · 02
The index and the average parted ways
Read it: the cap-weighted index outran its own equal-weighted average by ~4 points in a year — that gap IS the AI trade. If you own 'the market', you already own the race.
THE AI RACE · 03
It stopped trading as one
The most important chart nobody is watching: the theme's internal correlations
The 'AI trade' quietly broke into four different trades — and most books still hedge it as one.
The foundry now moves WITH the chip leader more than ever: correlation tightened toward 0.7 — the market agreeing on where the chokepoint sits.
The hyperscalers decoupled: correlation to the chip leader fell from ~0.55 to ~0.2 as the market started charging the capex payers instead of rewarding them.
Power fully detached (0.07) and China runs its own cycle (0.39) — dispersion inside the theme is the widest of the cycle.
Positioning sharpens the break: in Korea two chip names are ~60% of the index — one point from tripping US diversification limits and forcing ~$2bn of valuation-blind selling.
THE AI RACE · 03
CORRELATION MAP · THE AI COMPLEX · ILLUSTRATIVE
It Stopped Trading as One
THE AI RACE · 03
REGIME 
LINKEDFOUNDRY
moves WITH the leader
CORR TO LEADER 0.69RISING
1HYPERSCALERS
decoupling — 0.55 → 0.22
CORR TO LEADER
2POWER
fully decoupled
CORR TO LEADER 0.07NO LINK
3CHINA
its own cycle
CORR TO LEADER 0.39
NVIDIA — THE LEADER
the one node everyone keyed off
The AI complex broke into four different trades — dispersion is the opportunity.
THE AI RACE · 03
Correlation to the chain leader, rolling 60 days
Read it: foundry rising to 0.69, hyperscalers down to 0.22, power at 0.07, China at 0.39. Beta to 'AI' is dead money — picking the layer is now the whole game.
THE AI RACE · 04
The chokepoint moves — the rent stays
The reframe that turns the race into a tradable supply chain
The binding constraint migrates along the chain — capital, then wafers and memory, next power. Pricing power always lives at the choke.
Wafers: the foundry giant just printed its best month ever (+68% year over year) and says it cannot fill American demand 'for years'. Prices raised 5-10% through 2029, no pushback.
Memory: high-bandwidth stacks are sold out industry-wide through 2026; the market grows ~58% this year; next-gen stacks sell near $500 apiece versus $300 today.
Power is next: grid queues run 4-7 years, a flagship data-center expansion was withdrawn over power, and one AI lab now runs 422 megawatts of its own gas turbines rather than wait.
The operating rule: own the binding layer, rent the story, fade the layer whose constraint was just relieved.
THE AI RACE · 04
SUPPLY CHAIN · WHERE THE RENT SITS
The Chokepoint Moves — the Rent Stays
THE AI RACE · 04
CONSTRAINT NOW
Own the layer where the constraint binds — today that is wafers and memory, next it is power.
ILLUSTRATIVE MECHANICS — NOT TO SCALE, NOT A FORECAST
CAPITAL ▸ WAFERS ▸ MEMORY ▸ COMPUTE ▸ POWER
THE AI RACE · 04
The market pays whoever holds the choke
Read it: the scarce layers re-rated hardest — memory ×6, equipment ×2.7 — while the capex payers went sideways. The rent follows the constraint; when the choke moves to power, so does the rent.
THE AI RACE · 05
Weigh the price against the capture
Cross-sectional fundamentals: where price and value have come apart
The market is paying for stories, not margins — the gap between price paid and value captured is the trade.
Memory sells the scarcest input in the chain at 4-6x forward earnings with 40-60% margins and record guides — still priced as a commodity cycle.
The chip leader — 61% operating margin, 65% growth — trades at ~20x: one of the cheapest names in its own supply chain.
The policy premium is real but expensive: the US national champion at 93x with a negative operating margin; the defense-AI darling at ~59x sales. Bets on the state, not on earnings.
Same news, opposite cross-sections: a hot inflation print de-rates the expensive story names first; a strong foundry guide re-rates the cheap scarce layers first.
THE AI RACE · 05
THE ASSAY BENCH · EVERY AI NAME GETS WEIGHED
Weigh the Price Against the Capture
THE AI RACE · 05
1 · LOAD THE SAMPLE
PRICE PAID
2 · THE BEAM DECIDES
VALUE CAPTURED
operating margin
The Assay Ledger
3 · SORTED
UNDERPRICED
MEMORY
4-6x earnings
sold out all year
CHIP LEADER
20x earnings
61% margin
OVERPRICED
NATIONAL CHAMPION
93x earnings
margin below zero
DEFENSE SOFTWARE
59x sales
story premium
SAMPLES SORTED
The market is paying for stories, not margins — the gap between them is the trade.
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast THE MISPRICING GRID · PRICE VS. VALUE CAPTURED
THE AI RACE · 05
The cross-section in one picture
Read it: upper-left is cheap capture (memory), lower-right is expensive story (the national champions). The further a name sits from the diagonal, the bigger the mispricing — in either direction.
THE AI RACE · 06
The buildout is now a bond-market story
The least-watched transmission channel of the race — and the one that breaks first
When the capex is borrowed, a revenue miss is not a de-rating — it is a credit event. The bond market will know first.
AI-linked debt is roughly $1.2 trillion — the largest slice of the investment-grade index. High-yield AI issuance $32bn this year; $800bn more queued in private credit.
Demand is thinning: the latest $25bn mega-deal needed 18-21bp of extra yield and drew 2.5x coverage, down from 3.2x in March — the weakest hyperscaler reception in months.
The spend-versus-revenue gap is ~46% — wider than the 32% at the top of the 2001 telecom bust — and the BIS just named an AI capex bust its #1 stability risk for 2026.
PM read: watch new-issue concessions and coverage ratios, not equity headlines. Spread widening in AI paper is the regime's first tell.
THE AI RACE · 06
INVESTMENT-GRADE BONDS $1.2 TRILLION NOW THE LARGEST SECTOR HIGH-YIELD BONDS $32BN THIS YEAR PRIVATE CREDIT $800BN QUEUED TO DEPLOY 1 2 3 THE DATA-HALL FURNACE · CAPEX BURNS HERE AI REVENUE — THE RETURN FLOW
TELECOM '01: 32% SPEND VS REVENUE GAP
Debt-financed capex · the credit channel
The Buildout Runs on Borrowed Money
The AI Race · 06
And widening
2001 telecom bust peaked at 32%
Bond demand cover
was 3.2x →2.5x AND FALLING
When the capex is borrowed, a revenue miss becomes a credit event — watch the bond market first.
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
THE AI RACE · 06
Credit is priced for the story, not the math
Read it: high-yield spreads still near cycle tights while the market's biggest borrower cohort runs a 46% funding gap. When this regime is tested, the first crack shows here — asymmetry favors owning the hedge.
THE AI RACE · 07
Losing the compute war, winning the cost war
The complication the winner-take-all frame has to survive
China's counter is not a bigger model — it is a lower price. The cost tide caps what the compute fortress can charge.
Chinese open-source models now serve up to 46% of US enterprise AI usage — from 4.5% a year ago — at 60-90% lower cost.
Self-reliance is compounding: 5nm-class silicon in volume without Western lithography, a leading lab building its own inference chip, ByteDance capex up to $70bn.
Demand didn't obey the wall: five-year-old US AI servers sell for ~$82,000 inside China — triple the price. Controls redirected the flow; they did not stop it.
Dated catalysts: Q2 growth prints Wednesday 02:00 GMT (consensus 4.5%); the late-July Politburo is the stimulus decision. The complex trades at 12-17x — squeeze fuel if support lands.
THE AI RACE · 07
CEILING
The Compute Fortress US frontier models · the high ground
Export-Control Wall chips walled off at the gate
Seepage — demand finds a way five-year-old chips selling at $82,000 inside China
The Cost Tide Chinese open-source models · 60–90% cheaper
1The wall holds compute
2The tide rises beneath
3The price ceiling drops
Share of US enterprise AI usage
46% — today
4.5% — a year ago
America holds the high ground, China floods the low ground — and the tide caps everyone’s pricing power.
China’s counter · the cost war
The Fortress and the Tide
The AI Race · 07
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
THE AI RACE · 07
The market pays one war and ignores the other
Read it: US semis doubled while China's complex de-rated 8-25%. If the cost war caps US pricing power, this gap is mispriced from BOTH sides — the crowded side has the most to give back.
THE AI RACE · 08
Two flows, one dollar
Reading the race's scoreboard: capital flows, not headlines
Risk capital is flooding INTO US assets while reserve capital walks OUT — the dollar is the scoreboard of both races at once.
In: Gulf sovereigns deployed a record $53.9bn in six months, half into US AI privates; the IPO wave ahead is worth more than every US venture exit since 2000 combined.
In: the 35% investment tax credit plus 100% tariff threat is pulling the chain onshore — $37bn Texas, $165bn Arizona, an Indiana fab funded by a record $26.5bn US listing.
Out: gold just passed Treasuries as a share of official reserves (27% vs 22%) and 74% of central banks plan lower dollar holdings — while the deficit runs $1.8 trillion, 5.7% of GDP.
Trade both legs: the risk bid supports US assets and the currency near-term; the reserve exit builds the long-run case for gold and steeper curves. They are not the same trade.
THE AI RACE · 08
The Scoreboard
Risk In ▶
Gulf sovereign · 6-month tally
US listing $26.5bn
Foreign fab build record
◀ Reserve Out
GOLD27%
TREASURIES22%
74% of central banks trimming dollars
The Net
RISK BIDWinning
RESERVE BIDLosing
Capital Scoreboard · Two Lanes, One Gate
Two Flows, One Dollar
THE AI RACE · 08
The dollar is winning the risk bid and losing the reserve bid — trade the two flows separately.
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast Capital Flows Research
THE AI RACE · 08
Reserve money is choosing the exit
Read it: gold re-rated while the dollar index went nowhere — reserve managers have been quietly leaving through the back door even as risk capital pours in the front. Both flows are real; trade them separately.
THE AI RACE · 09
Four scenarios, pre-loaded
Decide the response before the tape opens — what re-prices first, and the expression that fits
ScenarioTriggerFirst re-pricing → the trade
Hot inflation + hawkish Fed chairTue 8:30 print · 10:00 testimonySystematics de-gross → trim semis beta, own defense, steepener
Foundry guides upThu earnings — ±$150bn impliedScarce layers re-rate → buy memory dips, stay long chokepoint
The funding gap goes liveWeak guide or bond cover under 2.5xCredit cracks first → cut AI paper, hedges on, quality bias
China stimulus landsWed 02:00 growth print · PolitburoUnpaid side squeezes from 12-17x → tactical China longs
Positioning is the amplifier: systematic funds sit near the 88th percentile of equity exposure going into all four gates.
THE AI RACE · 09
FRI THU WED TUE
1TUE
US inflation print · the new Fed chair's first testimony · five big banks report
2WED · overnight
China's second-quarter growth print
3THU
The foundry giant reports — options price a ±$150bn swing
4FRI
Consumer sentiment · euro-area inflation
Beyond the gates — late July
Beijing's stimulus meeting · US tariff decisions
The Crowded Long
Systematic funds near maximum equity exposure — marching into gate one
DOOR-LAMPS — pass / fail
Shaken out — positions cut at each gate
Positioning is max-long into the heaviest week of the summer — every gate is a live test.
Positioning vs the calendar · the week ahead
Four Gates Between Here and Friday
THE AI RACE · 09
Gate under test
Illustrative mechanics — not to scale, not a forecast
Capital Flows Research
THE AI RACE · 10
The positioning grid
The whole race on one page — by asset class
Asset classThe race exposureThe stance
EquitiesTop 10 = 41% — concentration IS the raceOwn binding layers; rent story names; trade dispersion, not beta
CreditAI debt = largest IG sector (~$1.2T)Underweight borrower paper; coverage + concessions = first tell
RatesAI + defense capex = duration supplySteepener bias — the long end funds the race
FXDollar = risk-capital-in vs reserve-outFirm near-term; structural flow favors gold over the dollar
CommoditiesPower is the next chokepointLong the electron chain: grid, turbines, generation, fuel
Cross-asset hedgeLegacy defense ~0.0 corr to the chainThe cheapest hedge that lives inside the same thesis
Rule of the regime: own the constraint, rent the story, fade the layer just relieved.
THE AI RACE · 11
The week that tests everything
Dated catalysts — each one a live test of the race trade
1Tuesday — US June inflation (survey 3.8% headline / 2.8% core), the new Fed chair's first testimony 90 minutes later, and five major banks report. Hike odds ~46% going in: the macro overlay on every AI position.
2Wednesday 02:00 GMT — China's second-quarter growth (consensus 4.5%, down from 5.0%). A miss loads the late-July Politburo stimulus decision.
3Thursday — the foundry giant reports (options imply a ±$150bn market-cap swing), plus US retail sales. The cleanest single test of the chokepoint thesis.
4Friday — US consumer sentiment and euro-area inflation. Position washing into the weekend.
5Beyond the week — July 20-24: the durable US tariff architecture finalizes (semiconductors included); late July: Beijing's Politburo on stimulus; late 2026: the China chip-waiver cliff — a dated, underpriced policy expiry.
If the week validates the chain, add at the chokepoints. If it breaks, credit tells you first.
Macro Livestream Format
Map the macro regime so you're on the right side of it, and isolate the few large, asymmetric bets that can become home-run trades.
Free Macro Playbook
Macro Flows From First Principles
What Actually Drives Markets
How The Structural Regime Is Developing
Filtering False Narratives And Institutional Bias
Reading The Daily Data In Regime Context
Global Capital Flows
Macro Regime
Positioning & Systematic Flows
Macro Liquidity
Credit Cycle
Cross-Border Flows
Growth · Inflation · Liquidity
Rates & FX
Equities
Market Microstructure
Option Flow
Momentum & Mean Reversion
A Complete Read On The Macro Backdrop
Clarity on the Macro Regime
AND
Conviction in Asymmetric Bets
Session Output
During the Livestream
Live Q&A
After the Livestream(20-Minute Read)
Proprietary Macro Flows & Positioning Report
Recording of the Private Session
Synthesized Transcript of the Private Session